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17-Point Risk Algorithm

The Mcdoty 17-Point Risk Matrix

Complete transparency. See exactly how our algorithm calculates freight fraud risk.

How the Risk Score is Calculated

100% Cap Rule

Our engine assigns specific penalty points to every detected fraud signal. The final risk score is the sum of all active penalties. However, the maximum possible score is strictly capped at 100%.

Calculation Example
Max Threshold Capped
Rapid Relocation (+40)+Unsatisfactory Rating (+40)+Impossible Mileage (+30)=110 PointsCapped at 100%

Example: If a carrier triggers Rapid Relocation (+40), Unsatisfactory Rating (+40), and Impossible Mileage (+30), the cumulative penalty is 110. Our engine will cap and display the final score as 100% (Critical Maximum Threat), indicating the carrier is completely unfit for loads.

Identity Theft

Signals linked to compromised MC numbers and hijacked carrier profiles

7 Indicators

Rapid Relocation

Detect recent changes in physical state, city, phone, or email identity details.

+40

Area Code Mismatch

Flag phone numbers originating outside registered entity state.

+30

Fleet Collapse

Detect sudden drops in registered power units (e.g. >5 trucks → ≤2).

+25

Idle Account

Catch dormant carrier accounts returning to activity after long inactivity.

+15

Residential Address

Highlight virtual or residential principal addresses without real yard facility.

+15

Prior Revoke

Identify entities previously revoked for safety or compliance issues.

+10

Undeliverable Mail

Detect returned physical mail or invalid address records on FMCSA file.

+10
Group Weight Impact145 Max Points

Double Brokering

Operational anomalies indicating shell entities and illegal load re-brokering

4 Indicators

Impossible Mileage

Flag carriers declaring unrealistic annual mileage per truck.

+30

Ghost Fleet

Spot declared power units with zero active inspections or driver logs.

+20

Paper Entity

Expose new carriers holding interstate authority with minimal reported mileage.

+15

VOIP Detected

Flag non-fixed VoIP phone numbers commonly used by double brokering rings.

+15
Group Weight Impact80 Max Points

Hidden Networks

Cross-entity correlation uncovering linked fraud rings and shared infrastructure

3 Indicators

Shared Phone

Detect phone numbers reused across multiple unrelated MC numbers.

+20

Shared Email

Flag matching dispatch email domains connected to flagged bad actors.

+20

Shared Address

Uncover physical office addresses shared by multiple carrier entities.

+15
Group Weight Impact55 Max Points

Federal Safety

Official FMCSA compliance, safety ratings, and regulatory enforcement status

3 Indicators

Unsatisfactory Rating

Highlight FMCSA unsatisfactory safety ratings or out-of-service orders.

+40

Active MCSIP

Flag carriers currently under Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Programs.

+15

Conditional Rating

Identify carriers operating under conditional compliance status.

+15
Group Weight Impact70 Max Points
Algorithmic Integrity

Why Our Scoring is Fair, Accurate, and Never Blind.

Built on strict mathematical principles to prevent score inflation and guarantee carrier fairness.

Zero Mutual Occurrence (Logical Exclusivity)

Indicators within the same group rarely stack. For example, a carrier physically cannot hold both an "Unsatisfactory" (+40) and "Conditional" (+15) FMCSA safety rating simultaneously. Our theoretical maximums are just that—theoretical. In reality, the math reflects precise, mutually exclusive operational states.

The Capped 100% Threshold

Risk points are cumulative, but the final score is strictly capped using MIN(100, Total_Points). Severe penalties (+40 for Identity Hijacking or Unsatisfactory Safety) aren't meant to "punish" a carrier; they act as immediate circuit breakers. A single critical fraud event pushes the score into the rejection zone instantly to protect your freight.

Tiered Impact Levels

Points are weighted by actual operational threat, not arbitrary rules:

  • Severe Threat (+30 to +40): Active fraud like Rapid Relocation, Area Code Mismatch, Unsatisfactory Rating, or Impossible Mileage.
  • Moderate Threat (+15 to +25): Structural anomalies like Fleet Collapse, Ghost Fleet, Shared Networks, Paper Entities, or Conditional Ratings.
  • Minor Indicator (+10): Compliance warnings like Prior Revoke or Undeliverable Mail.

Fair Context & The Right to Appeal

Context matters. A carrier with a "Residential Address" (+15) operating a single truck remains safely in the 0–25 Approved zone if their other data is clean. Furthermore, carriers have the right to context: our platform allows legitimate carriers to use the "Fast Appeal" feature to submit official documentation and clear false-positive flags.

Risk Scoring Spectrum

How Mcdoty Evaluates Overall Carrier Risk

Risk scores accumulate dynamically based on active indicators. Each trigger adds points to the carrier's evaluation index with automated decision rules.

0 – 25 Points

Low Risk / Approved

Approved for automated load booking with standard continuous monitoring.

26 – 65 Points

Moderate Risk / Review

Requires dispatcher manual review and secondary ID verification before dispatch.

66+ Points

Critical Risk / Block

Automatically blocked from tender. Instant high-risk alert dispatched to compliance team.

Ready to secure your carrier pool?

Scan any DOT or MC number right now to get an instant 17-point risk breakdown.